The program’s revenues would remain near 4.5% of GDP during that 75-year period, according to the report. After 2098, the gap between revenues and outlays as a percentage of GDP would widen, and shortfalls would continue to grow.
Taken individually, the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted in fiscal year 2033, and the balance of the Disability Insurance Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2064.
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Social Security’s actuarial deficit over the next 75 years, a summary measure of the program’s sustainability, is equal to 1.5% of GDP or 4.3% of taxable payroll — i.e., total earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax.
Another dynamic highlighted in the report is the fact that average initial benefits are projected to increase over time in real terms — i.e., after adjustments to remove the effects of inflation.
“For people born from the 1950s to the 1990s, those initial benefits replace more than one-third of pre-retirement earnings for retired workers and more than half of average recent earnings for disabled workers,” the report explains.
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