Floodplain Expansion
+43%
130 sq. miles added
Last Map Update
2007
19 years ago
Properties Since Harvey
65,000
built in flood zones
New Rainfall Estimate
17″
in 24 hours (was 13″)
What Just Happened
On February 10, 2026, FEMA quietly posted a draft of Harris County’s new flood maps online, the first comprehensive update since 2007. These maps use higher rainfall estimates (17 inches in 24 hours, up from 13), updated LiDAR terrain data, and more advanced modeling than anything Harris County has worked with before.
According to a Houston Chronicle analysis, the 100-year floodplain would grow by about 130 square miles, a 43% increase. In many areas, the new 100-year boundary roughly aligns with what used to be the 500-year floodplain. The 500-year floodplain would increase by about 62 square miles, or 30%.
Important: These maps are drafts and carry no regulatory weight yet. Nothing changes immediately. But the process has officially started, and the last time this happened (after Tropical Storm Allison), it took about three years from draft to enforcement.
What the Timeline Looks Like
This won’t happen overnight. Here’s the expected path:
February 2026
Draft Maps Released
FEMA posts draft for 34 floodplain administrators. Harris County plans a public-friendly map viewer within weeks.
30 Days After Release
Local Official Review
Floodplain administrators provide technical feedback. FEMA has 60 days to prepare broader release.
~90 Days Out
Broader Public Release
Homeowners can search their address and see proposed designations.
Following Public Release
Formal Comment & Appeal Period
Property owners can formally challenge designations. Elevation Certificates and LOMAs may apply.
Estimated 2028 to 2029
Maps Finalized & Adopted
Insurance mandates take effect for properties with federally backed mortgages.
Neighborhoods Affected, Matched to Our Pricing Data
Here’s where it gets specific. We matched the neighborhoods flagged in the draft maps to real premium data from the 40 Houston properties in our book. This is what homeowners in these areas are actually paying right now.
Meyerland (77096)
Brays Bayou proximity. Infrastructure improvements reduced risk in parts, but RR 2.0 still prices aggressively.
Our data: $493 to $2,796 (5.7x spread)
Mixed, Parts Reduced
Memorial (77024)
Buffalo Bayou corridor, low elevation. Some of the highest premiums in our portfolio.
Our data: $1,251 to $3,324
Clear Lake (77059)
Storm surge from Galveston Bay. Highest premium in our Houston dataset.
Our data: $3,658 (Zone AE)
Alief / Sharpstown (77072)
Older drainage, dense development. Flash flood risk in revised models.
Our data: $505 (Zone X, could rise)
Greens & Halls Bayou (NE)
Northeast corridors confirmed expanding in draft maps.
Nearby: $341 Greenspoint (77014, Zone X)
Cypress / Addicks (77041)
Reservoir overflow modeling bringing new areas into SFHA.
Our data: $301 (Zone X, lowest in book)
Kingwood (77345)
San Jacinto River but elevation advantage keeps premium well below AE median.
Our data: $432 (Zone AE, lowest AE)
Under Review
Fondren SW (77099)
Keegans Bayou area noted in draft expansions.
Our data: $707 (Zone AE)
What Houston Homeowners Actually Pay: 40 Properties, No Filters
This is the data nobody else has. We pulled every Houston property in our book, 40 policies across 26 zip codes, and laid out the premiums. What you’ll see is that flood zone is not destiny. Your specific property determines your rate under Risk Rating 2.0.
| Neighborhood | Zip | Zone | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cypress | 77041 | X | $301 |
| Greenspoint Area | 77014 | X | $341 |
| Alief | 77072 | X | $505 |
| River Oaks Area | 77019 | X | $531 |
| Third Ward | 77021 | X | $629 |
| Meyerland | 77096 | X | $939 |
| Memorial | 77024 | X | $1,251 |
| Southeast Houston | 77089 | X | $1,666 |
| Neighborhood | Zip | Zone | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kingwood | 77345 | AE | $432 |
| Meyerland | 77096 | AE | $493 |
| Fondren Southwest | 77099 | AE | $707 |
| Jersey Village Area | 77040 | AE | $1,327 |
| Meyerland | 77096 | AE | $2,796 |
| Memorial | 77024 | AE | $3,324 |
| Clear Lake | 77059 | AE | $3,658 |
The number that should stop you: 7 of our 17 Zone X properties pay MORE than our lowest-priced Zone AE property ($432 in Kingwood). A “low risk” homeowner in SE Houston (77089) pays $1,666/yr while a “high risk” homeowner in Kingwood (77345) pays $432/yr. Zone doesn’t equal cost. Risk Rating 2.0 looks at YOUR property.
What This Means for Your Flood Insurance
Here’s the part most people miss: flood maps don’t set your insurance rate. They determine whether you’re required to carry flood insurance. Your actual premium is set by Risk Rating 2.0, FEMA’s property-specific pricing model, or by private carriers using their own underwriting.
If your property moves into a Special Flood Hazard Area and you have a federally backed mortgage, you will be required to carry flood insurance. That’s where comparing NFIP vs. private becomes critical.
Our Zone AE comparison data tells the story:
$1,222 saved annually
Buyer chose private, lender accepted with Compliance Aid Statement
AE Sample29 Properties
Private Cheaper~72%
Median NFIP$2,338/yr
Median Private$1,116/yr
Read the full case study →
Most of our 40 Houston policies are written through NFIP Write-Your-Own carriers. For properties where private carriers offer better rates, like high-value homes in Memorial or properties where RR 2.0 prices aggressively, we place them with private options. Neither is universally better. The only way to know is to quote both.
Four Scenarios Houston Homeowners Face Right Now
🏠
Already in Zone AE
You carry flood insurance already. Our data shows premiums range from $432 (Kingwood) to $3,658 (Clear Lake). Private is cheaper in ~72% of AE cases. Are you overpaying?
📍
Moving Into Zone AE
New maps could reclassify you. Our Zone X homeowners pay $301 to $1,666. A zone change could shift that significantly. Get quotes before maps finalize.
🔑
Buying a Houston Property
Check draft maps before closing. A Zone X property today could become Zone AE. We’ve seen reclassification add over $2,000/yr to costs.
📊
Investing in Houston Real Estate
Flood insurance affects cash flow. Across 29 Zone AE comparisons, private averaged $1,222/yr less than NFIP. Multiply that across a portfolio.
What You Should Do Right Now
Even though these maps won’t be enforced for 2 to 3 years, the smart move is to act before the rush. Once maps finalize and tens of thousands of homeowners are suddenly required to buy flood insurance, the private market may tighten.
Step 1: Check your property. Harris County Flood Control District is launching a public viewer at hcfcd.org/MAAPnext. You can also check the draft on FEMA’s site directly.
Step 2: Get a side-by-side comparison. If you’re in or near the expanded floodplain, we quote both NFIP and private carriers so you see the real numbers.
Step 3: Know your appeal rights. During the formal comment period, you can challenge your designation. An Elevation Certificate or LOMA may apply.
Step 4: Don’t assume your zone equals your cost. Our data proves it. Zone X in SE Houston: $1,666. Zone AE in Kingwood: $432. Risk Rating 2.0 looks at your property, not just the map line.
Frequently Asked Questions
The maps released on February 10, 2026 are drafts. They carry no regulatory weight yet. The typical timeline from draft to enforcement is 2 to 3 years. Local officials review first (30 days), then FEMA prepares a broader public release (~90 days), followed by a formal comment and appeal period. Final adoption is estimated around 2028 to 2029. Until maps are finalized and adopted, your current flood zone designation and insurance requirements remain unchanged.